| VAT 4956 LINE | Type of obser- vation | Five years tested for observations of VAT 4956. Organized in discending order of their success rate | Success Rate for "Wrong" Years by Type of Observation | ||||||
| 568/567 | 587/586 | 549/548 | 569/568 | 588/587 | |||||
| 1 | M | P | P | P | P | F | All percentages below are for wong years | ||
| 12 | M | P | P | P | P | F | |||
| 5' | M | P | P | P | P | P | |||
| 6' | M | P | P | P | P | P | Lunar Positions in relation to a Constellation | ||
| 12' | M | P | P | P | P | P | |||
| 14' | M | P | P | F | F | P | Match rate | 83% | |
| 3 | Mm | F | F | P | F | P | |||
| 8 | Mm | P | P | P | P | F | |||
| 14 | Mm | F | P | F | F | P | |||
| 15 | Mm | P | F | P | F | F | Lunar Positions referenced by its distance to a common star. | ||
| 16 | Mm | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 13' | Mm | P | P | F | P | F | Match rate | 42% | |
| 4 | L | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 11 | L | P | P | P | F | F | |||
| 12 | L | P | P | P | F | F | |||
| 17 | L | P | P | F | F | F | |||
| 5' | L | P | P | F | F | F | |||
| 12' | L | P | P | P | F | P | Lunar threes (time intervals) | ||
| 16' | L | P | F | F | P | F | Match rate | 36% | |
| 2 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 3 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 9 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 10 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 11 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 12,13 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 13 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 13 | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 3' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 5' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 6' | PL | P | F | P | F | F | |||
| 12' | PL | P | F | F | P | F | |||
| 16' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 17' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | |||
| 19' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | Planetary positions | ||
| 19' | PL | P | F | F | F | F | Match rate | 3% | |
| 16 | SS | P | P | P | F | F | |||
| Grand Total "pass" | 34 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 7 | ||||
| Grand Total "fail" | 2 | 21 | 23 | 27 | 29 | ||||
| Total (M) out of 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| Total (Mm) out of 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| Total (L) out of 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Total (PL) out of 16 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| Summer Solstice | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Total Success Rate | 568/567 | 587/586 | 549/548 | 569/568 | 588/587 | ||||
| per year in descen- | 94% | 42% | 36% | 25% | 19% | ||||
| ding order | |||||||||
| 588/587 | Watchtower's year for VAT 4956 (lowest "pass" rate) | ||||||||
| 568/567 | Conventional year for VAT 4956 (highest "pass" rate) | ||||||||
| M | Moon position in relation to a constellation | ||||||||
| Mm | Moon positions in relation to a star (distance provided) | ||||||||
never a jw
JoinedPosts by never a jw
-
322
WT Nov. 1, 2011 (public) - When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed - Part 2
by AnnOMaly inout now.. yes, yes, yessssss!
on p. 26-27 they talk about how the lunar positions on vat 4956 fit 588/7 bce!!!.
"clearly, much of the astronomical data in vat 4956 fits the year 588 b.c.e.
-
-
never a jw
-
322
WT Nov. 1, 2011 (public) - When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed - Part 2
by AnnOMaly inout now.. yes, yes, yessssss!
on p. 26-27 they talk about how the lunar positions on vat 4956 fit 588/7 bce!!!.
"clearly, much of the astronomical data in vat 4956 fits the year 588 b.c.e.
-
-
never a jw
VAT 4956 LINE Type of obser- vation Same Metonic Cycle Same Metonic Cycle Calculations with Highest Average Success Rate (only for the 4 lowest scoring years) Eclipse on July 15 Eclipse on July 4, July 5 588/587 569/568 587/586 568/567 549/548 1 M F P P P P 75% 2 PL F F F P F 3 Mm P F F F P 3 PL F F F P F 4 L F F F P F 8 Mm F P P P P 75% 9 PL F F F P F 10 PL F F F P F 11 PL F F F P F 11 L F F P P P 12 M F P P P P 75% 12 L F F P P P NOTE: Moon positions tend to generate high success rate for the wrong years (see all seven framed values above/below this comment). On the other hand, almost all planetary computations for the wrong years fail to match the observations (62 of 64) of VAT 4956. 12,13 PL F F F P F 13 PL F F F P F 13 PL F F F P F 14 Mm P F P F F 15 Mm F F F P P 16 SS F F P P P 16 Mm F F F P F 17 L F F P P F 3' PL F F F P F 5' M P P P P P 100% 5' L F F P P F 5' PL F F F P F Also, see blue note below. 6' PL F F F P P 6' M P P P P P 100% 12' M P P P P P 100% 12' L P F P P P 75% 12' PL F P F P F 13' Mm F P P P F 14' M P F P P F Success rate for year 588/587 Avg. Succes rate for 4 LOWEST score years Success rate for year 568/567 16' L F P F P F 16' PL F F F P F 17' PL F F F P F 19' PL F F F P F 19' PL F F F P F Grand Total "pass" 7 9 15 34 13 19% 31% 94% Grand Total "fail" 29 27 21 2 23 Success rate by category Total (M) out of 6 4 5 6 6 5 67% 83% 100% Total (Mm) out of 6 2 2 3 4 3 33% 42% 67% Total (L) out of 7 1 1 5 7 3 14% 36% 100% Total (PL) out of 16 0 1 0 16 1 0% 3% 100% Summer Solstice 0 0 1 1 1 0% 50% 100% Total Success Rate 588/587 569/568 587/586 568/567 549/548 NOTE: The matches in a blue background are the combined lunar observations (M and Mm). Notice that the year 587/586, wrong year, has a count (6+3) almost as high as that of the conventional year 568/567 (6+4). per year 19% 25% 42% 94% 36% 588/587 Watchtower's year for VAT 4956 (lowest "pass" rate) 568/567 Conventional year for VAT 4956 (highest "pass" rate) M Moon position in relation to a constellation Mm Moon positions in relation to a star (distance provided) PL Planetary position NOTE: All dates for years 569/568 and 588/587 are invalid . These years start a month later than the accepted and largely attested Babylonian lunar calendar. L Lunar 3's (intervals SS to MS, SR to MS, MR to SR) P Pass (observation and calculation are a match) F Fail (observation and calculation are not a match) -
322
WT Nov. 1, 2011 (public) - When Was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed - Part 2
by AnnOMaly inout now.. yes, yes, yessssss!
on p. 26-27 they talk about how the lunar positions on vat 4956 fit 588/7 bce!!!.
"clearly, much of the astronomical data in vat 4956 fits the year 588 b.c.e.
-
-
never a jw
I became very interested in the article several months ago because I found it quite interesting that the Watchtower had actually few lunar position matches. So I decided to test different years following the procedure the Watchtower followed. I found 3 other years with an eclipse close to the date of the eclipse of year 568/567 (July 4). I decided to test all 36 observations (few observations were excluded because the date is missing) for all 5 years including the RIGHT YEAR and the infamous 607/606 B.C.E. The results appear in the tables below. Some of the wrong years actually get more matches than the Watchtower’s year. The 1 st table is organized in chronological order. The 2 nd table is organized from left to right, from best to worst performer; and from top to bottom, by type of observation. If you look at the column on the right with percentages, it’s easy to see why the Watchtower chose to talk about lunar observations, and decided to shun lunar threes and planetary positions. They got the fewest matches, and when one consider that the entire calendar fabricated by the Watchtower is not valid one can conclude there’s not a single match
Below are some of the false statements in the article “When was Ancient Jerusalem Destroyed”(pg. 25-28 of the Nov. 2011 issue). The tables below prove all of them false. If anyone is interested in all the details of my study send me a PM.
1. “Because of the superior reliability of the lunar positions, researchers have carefully analyzed these 13 sets of lunar positions on VAT 4956”. FALSE. THE LUNAR POSITIONS ARE THE LEAST RELIABLE BECAUSE OBSERVATION/CALCULATION MATCHES APPEAR WITH A HIGH SUCCESS RATE EVEN IN THE WRONG YEARS
2. “all 13 sets match calculated positions for 20 years earlier, for the year 588/587 B.C.E.” FALSE . ONLY 6 FIT, AND IF ONE CONSIDERS THAT THE CALENDAR FABRICATED BY THE WATCHTOWER DOES NOT FIT WITH THE ACCEPTED AND LARGELY ATTESTED BABYLONIAN CALENDAR, THEN NONE OF THE CALCULATED POSITIONS FIT
3. “Clearly, much of the astronomical data in VAT 4956 fits the year 588 B.C.E. as the 37th year of Nebuchadnezzar II” FALSE
4. “17. Babilonian… B ecause the cuneiform signs for many of the planetary positions are open to speculation and to several interpretations, these positions were not used in this survey to pinpoint the year intended by this astronomical diary.” FALSE , ALL PLANETARY POSITIONS AND NAMES ARE UNAMBIGUOUS AND FIT YEAR 587/586 B.C.E. NONE FIT 607/606 BCE.
5. “18a. These time intervals (“lunar threes”) are the measurement of time from, for example, sunset to moonset …. Such measurements were not reliable.” FALSE, ALL TIME MEASUREMENT ARE QUITE ADEQUATE, AND ALL 7 LUNAR THREES FIT YEAR 587/586 B.C.E. VERY WELL. ONLY ONE BARELY FITS YEAR 607/606 BCE
-
49
Republican Party is pretty much done!
by free2beme inafter leaving the jehovah's witnesses, i started getting in to politics.
i naturally found myself going republican and voted a long those lines.
however, with my more pagan nature and being pretty much against christianity.
-
-
never a jw
Free2beme
I feel your pain. Republicans belong to the dark ages. Democrats are always trying to emulate socialist Europe. Libertarians have no chance of ever getting a seat even in the bus. Politics sucks.
-
50
The Watchtower Society has come to grips with the futility of D2D preaching
by wasblind inyou don't even have to read between the lines, they say it straight out on their website.
" in many countries, more and more people obtain information online.".
who'd a thunk it .
-
-
never a jw
Speaking of D2D, Just the other day I was thinking about how often I see JW's walking in pairs and talking to each other, or gathering in bigger groups, or standing holding a magazine. I rarely see them knocking on doors, much less talking to a possible convert. If the hours of service apply only to the time when they actually talked/preached to a non-jw, how much less preaching time would show on the annual report. I venture to say that the number would be 1/20th or lower of the numbers they have. The Hispanic JW's that I see in my neighborhood socialize among themselves much more than they preach, and that seems to be the general rule for other areas too.
-
22
Blood transfusions and JW children in a household with a non-believer parent
by never a jw injust recently my daughter ask for permission to get baptized.
not knowing the mess that my wife's religion is, i consented.
after a lot of research, i now regret my decision.
-
-
never a jw
JWOP, Cofty,
I knew guys like you would come along and bring excellent points to the table. Thank you guys. I have now lots to read and ponder about.
Wannabefree,
Thank you for the practical advice
-
22
Blood transfusions and JW children in a household with a non-believer parent
by never a jw injust recently my daughter ask for permission to get baptized.
not knowing the mess that my wife's religion is, i consented.
after a lot of research, i now regret my decision.
-
-
never a jw
Garyneal,
Thanks for the video. Regarding my purposes, I want to make a dent in the conviction of other JW's, but mainly in the conviction of my own children regarding their ill conceived ideas. Ultimately, I want to be able to expand my possibilities of saving their lives if the need for blood transfusions arises. Also, I want to avoid wasting valuable time in a debate with my wife and daughter in the emergency room.
-
22
Blood transfusions and JW children in a household with a non-believer parent
by never a jw injust recently my daughter ask for permission to get baptized.
not knowing the mess that my wife's religion is, i consented.
after a lot of research, i now regret my decision.
-
-
never a jw
Tater,
I thought about that, but I never heard or read of a succesful case before, so I dropped the idea.
aBible Student,
Thanks, I certainly will read Hassan's book, and also thank you for all the other advice
Balaam
She baptized already few months ago. I have asserted my head of houseold position, but I need to be persuasive . I hesitate to take them out of the JW World even with persuasion. Their social life with other JW's ia their main social life.
Exwhyzee,
Thanks for the analogies. My legal rights, I am pretty sure, are the same as those of my wife. The legal route is my last resort, but certainly not out of the question.
Splash and Was Blind,
Thanks for the ideas.
-
22
Blood transfusions and JW children in a household with a non-believer parent
by never a jw injust recently my daughter ask for permission to get baptized.
not knowing the mess that my wife's religion is, i consented.
after a lot of research, i now regret my decision.
-
-
never a jw
I am not a JW. Just recently my daughter ask for permission to get baptized. Not knowing the mess that my wife's religion is, I consented. After a lot of research, I now regret my decision. My daughter is 17, and my unbaptized son is 13. Since the belief of the blood transfusions can actually cost the life of one of them, I am actually considering to meet with the elders of the congregation and expose the weakness of the doctrine from every angle possible while having my children present. My approach would be:
1.- that the biblical text is ambiguous at best, and the current JW interpretation therefore likely erroneous,
2.- that accepting blood fractions is completely inconsistent with their belief of not accepting blood transfusions,
3.- that accepting fractions is inconsistent, even hypocritical, because the fractions needed to save the life of a JW will have to come from a blood donation from a non-JW
4.- and that if the leadership has been wrong so many times and has continually flipped-flopped about many doctrines and prophecies in the past, why should we trust our children to them in a matter of life and death such as blood transfusions.
My goal is to bring enough doubt to my children, especially my daughter, so they can reconsider their position about blood transfusions, and ultimately about their religion.
I know many of you are very knowledgeable and wise. You know far better than I do the mindset of an elder and of JW children. What would you advise? Should I do it or not do it? And if I do it, how should I go about it?
Thanks for all the advice.
-
53
VAT 4956 - Comparison Of The Lunar Three Time Intervals For Years 568/7 BCE and 588/7 BCE
by AnnOMaly invat 4956 - comparison of the lunar three time intervals for years 568/7 b.c.e.
the online sky view cafe (svc) and the cartes du ciel* (cdc) astronomy programs have been used for these results.. observer's location: babylon, 32 33' n / 44 24' e.. sr = sunrise; ss = sunset; mr = moonrise; ms = moonset.. .
svc's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 1.75 to 6.5. average difference 3.5.. cdc's range of difference between its results and that of the text, when a time interval could be taken, is 0.75 to 8.5. average difference 4. .
-
-
never a jw
AnnOMaly
Has anyone posted the planetary and moon observations of VAT 4956?
I have the results: every single planetary observation fails miserably for year 588 (regular calendar and Furuli's). The Lunar observations range from bad to excellent (the error for 8 claimed by the Watchtowwer, line 3 of the Diary, is actually an excellent fit for day 8 in Furuli's calendar).
The problem posting the results is that most require a sky shot and it would take a lot of space. Also my program, TheSkyX, gives me a boring and confusing b&w map. Addditionally I don't even know how to post documents or pictures. It's possible, however, to give a description and an explanation why the observation does not fit.